2 cents

Jun. 17th, 2012 08:53 am
icubud: (Belief and understanding)

2 cents on various recent headlines/stories:

1. CES & the illegal residents move: was completely about getting Hispanic votes in the next Nov. election and was done in an unconstitutional way (just like CESCare). Don't be surprised if this ends up at the Supreme Court as well. Of course the other motive is to hopefully position those people who expect our government to follow the constitution and demand an appeal as anti-Hispanic, bigots etc. Just like we don't care about those who don't have health care which is also a farce.

These two issues are good examples of why some people point out that the CES is anti-America, socialist, ashamed of America -- etc. In these two instances (it can be argued there are other examples but for the time being I limit to these two) he has ignored the constitution and did what HE thinks is right because HE KNOWS BETTER than the group of white men a couple hundred years ago whom allowed slavery to continue. Obviously HE is more enlightened than they are. CES - is a cancer in our government, economy and society. He is destroying the very system (the constitution) that holds our nation together. What other word would you call him but cancer? Well actually their are many other words but in this illustration cancer is the one I am thinking of.

2. Greece/Egypt presidential votes today:
Egypt: What is going on now is the constant deck reshuffling until a hand is given that can be played successfully that will no longer be an ally to Israel. While the decks shuffle over and over more and more Bedouin and terrorist missile attacks are fired into southern Israel from Egypt. What these people are wanting is an escalation in activity and harsh retaliation from Israel - and yes - Arab loss of lives so that the people of Egypt will foam at the mouth with hate against Israel and expect their government to side with Arabs and not with Jews.Catalysts to this strategy is far right Islam and the Muslim Brotherhood --- these two groups are one in the same. It is going to get much worse on the south border of Israel.

Greece: is a wildcard in my opinion. The so called right parties which are promising to drop the Euro and austerity measures if they get elected can and should expect some serious arm twisting from the members and leadership of the EU and USA if they are indeed elected. IF they are elected the eyes will immediately refocus and look to Spain, Italy & Portugal to see if there is an increase in bank activities – people withdrawing their savings etc. If that happens TPTB here in America and the stock market may start selling stock figuring a downturn is coming which of course will create a downturn in and of itself. Like I explained to my wife last night – it is again about perception. TPTB and the stock market see what they determine as a negative reaction in these other countries (not to mention in Greece itself) the thinking goes that these people --- consumers --- will go into pocketbook pinch mode which translates into no or much less purchasing of products which impacts to some significant degree the US mfg exports (less demand) so US mfg react (correctly) with decreases in production which leads to more off-time for employees and if it is not a very short term event, then  it will result in layoffs etc. ALL occurring in a US economy that is not in good place such that even the most miniscule decrease of production and exports will create large ripples across the economy. The economy is moving so slow that you can apply the brakes to it via the Fred Flintstone method. The possible silver lining in all this is that it is believe if the economy slows further or even dips again – even in the slightest of ways – that CES will then lose the next presidential election. The truth of the matter is that he should lose the next election anyway, the freaking socialist.

3. It is not just the US that had embraced depitalism as the behavior in the majority of households. It is something that has permeated the EU and Japan. China at the moment is repeating the mistakes of the US during the industrial age but making those mistakes in a communist government that greatly reduces the liberty of the citizens. The Frankenstein creature they are creating over there will be interesting and scary if we ever learn and understand all the details about it. Mexico, South America, India and Africa are so poor and overtly corrupt that they are pinned in.  There are of course other countries like Australia and Russia but I understand little if anything about what is really going in there. So that makes my focus on the US, EU, the Middle East and Japan. For the US, EU and Japan depitalism is the average households’ method of livelihood and finally people/consumers are realizing how debilitating debt is. Much change still will occur as households and companies find their new norm. In the US we will continue to see very slow and poor economic results each month until some systemic changes/improvements occurs in our economic infrastructure and it is in my opinion that those improvements will not occur if CES continues into a second term. In fact we will see things get much worse here.


icubud: (iron man)
Current issue of the magazine
2 cents: The next 72-96 hours should be interesting.

The euro zone on the brink

A bailout of Spain’s debt-stricken banks failed to calm growing panic that the euro could be about to unravel.

posted on June 14, 2012, at 9:02 AM

What happened
A euro zone bailout of Spain’s debt-stricken banks failed this week to calm growing panic that the euro could be about to unravel, as investors pushed Spain’s borrowing costs to ruinous levels and Greece faced an election that could force its exit from Europe’s common currency. The $125 billion aid package was intended to strengthen Spain’s teetering banking sector—which is loaded with toxic assets following the collapse of a housing bubble—and prevent the region’s fourth-largest economy from falling deeper into recession. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy hailed the bailout as a “victory” for both Spain and Europe. But markets remained pessimistic. The rate on Spanish 10-year bonds—a measure of how much investors trust a country to repay its debts—shot up to 6.7 percent, a level that compelled Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to seek bailouts, and could lead to Spain’s bankruptcy.

Yet more turmoil could be triggered by Greece’s election on Sunday. The far-left Syriza party, which is polling even with the conservative New Democracy party, has vowed to abandon austerity measures demanded by the European Union if it gains a majority in Parliament. That could lead euro zone leaders to pull the plug on further aid, forcing Greece out of the euro. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras warned European leaders that kicking Greece out of the currency would trigger a catastrophic loss of confidence in other European countries’ solvency, and set off a euro zone meltdown. “The fire will become unquenchable and will not be limited to Greece,” he said.

What the editorials said
Only one thing will save the European economy now, said The Washington Post. The Continent’s healthier nations—particularly Germany—must put together an equivalent of the massive, confidence-inspiring Troubled Asset Relief Program that saved U.S. banks from imploding in 2008. But the Germans “are still hesitant to co-sign eurobonds for their debtor neighbors,” and all other remedies are but temporary Band-Aids. This week, interest rates on Italy’s bonds also soared, to 6.2 percent—and the investors’ lack of faith is spreading. “There isn’t much time left.”
This is the price Europe has to pay for the “original sin of bailing out Greece,” said The Wall Street Journal. Bureaucrats in Brussels and Berlin originally claimed that overspending Athens couldn’t be allowed to fail, “because default would lead to contagion to other countries, a European recession, and perhaps to the breakup of the euro zone.” But two years and three bailouts later, where are we? “Europe is in recession, and contagion has spread to Spain, and perhaps next to Italy.”

What the columnists said
The immediate threat is a Greek exit from the euro zone, said Abdur Chowdhury in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. If an anti-austerity government takes power, and the country quits the euro and returns to a devalued drachma, terrified depositors in Spain, Ireland, and Italy will make a run on the banks. Then the euro’s collapse will be all but inevitable. President Obama’s fate is tied to Europe’s, said Dana Milbank in The Washington Post. He’ll be re-elected only if “voters perceive the economy to be improving.” But a severe downturn across the Atlantic would cause American exports to Europe to plummet and global markets to crash, dropping the U.S. back into recession.

Germany faces “an agonizing dilemma,” said Niall Ferguson in Newsweek. It must either agree to fund a strong central European bank, and thus, absorb its southern neighbor’s debts, or see the euro zone collapse. The collapse would destroy the market for nearly half of Germany’s exports and cost the country hundreds of billions of euros. “After two years of procrastination, Europe has reached the moment of truth.”

All the signs are bad, said Joe Nocera in The New York Times. Economists insist that “Europe needs tighter political and fiscal integration to save the euro,” but the euro zone consists of 17 nations—and “sovereign governments, it turns out, do not willingly cede their sovereignty.” Most Europeans would “rather risk financial disaster” than surrender their national identities and truly marry their economies, debt, and governments. Unless Europeans have a quick change of heart, the euro is doomed.



Nauseating

Mar. 27th, 2012 07:44 am
icubud: (Default)

Nauseating

Mar. 27th, 2012 07:44 am
icubud: (Default)
icubud: (web bot)
17 quotes on the upcoming financial crisis

Here is one from the guy I tend to keep an eye on who has done pretty good on analysis and truth of what is actually occurring and/or will happen:

Gerald Celente, founder of The Trends Research Institute: “The whole system is going down. Pull your money out your Fidelity account, your Schwab account, and your ETFs.”
Are you starting to get the picture?
When so many top financial professionals are freaking out like this, perhaps the rest of us should start paying attention.
They are telling us that “time is running out”.
They are telling us that “there is definitely going to be another financial crisis”.
They are telling us that this “is going to be worse” than 2008.
They are telling us that “the whole system is going down”.
Yes, a devastating financial collapse really is coming.  Just like in 2008, it will seem like the “end of the world” while it is happening, but it won’t be.  It will severely damage our financial system and our economy, but it will not finish us off.
Think of it this way.  When you build a sand castle at the beach, it doesn’t get totally wiped out by the first wave or the second wave that hits it.  Each wave does significant damage, but the destruction of your sand castle is a process.
It is the same thing with the U.S. economy.  We once had the most incredible economic machine that the world has ever seen.  It is constantly being gutted and the financial crisis of 2008 hit us really hard, but we are still doing okay.
After this next financial crisis we will be in even worse shape.  But we will still be breathing.
More “waves” will come after this next financial crisis.  If we continue on the road that we are on, our economy will progressively get worse and worse.
Not everyone will agree with this analysis, and that is okay.  In the end, time will reveal the truth to all of us.
Right now, we all need to get ready for the next wave that is about to hit us.  A lot of people are going to lose their jobs over the next few years.  Hopefully you are prepared for that.
icubud: (web bot)
17 quotes on the upcoming financial crisis

Here is one from the guy I tend to keep an eye on who has done pretty good on analysis and truth of what is actually occurring and/or will happen:

Gerald Celente, founder of The Trends Research Institute: “The whole system is going down. Pull your money out your Fidelity account, your Schwab account, and your ETFs.”
Are you starting to get the picture?
When so many top financial professionals are freaking out like this, perhaps the rest of us should start paying attention.
They are telling us that “time is running out”.
They are telling us that “there is definitely going to be another financial crisis”.
They are telling us that this “is going to be worse” than 2008.
They are telling us that “the whole system is going down”.
Yes, a devastating financial collapse really is coming.  Just like in 2008, it will seem like the “end of the world” while it is happening, but it won’t be.  It will severely damage our financial system and our economy, but it will not finish us off.
Think of it this way.  When you build a sand castle at the beach, it doesn’t get totally wiped out by the first wave or the second wave that hits it.  Each wave does significant damage, but the destruction of your sand castle is a process.
It is the same thing with the U.S. economy.  We once had the most incredible economic machine that the world has ever seen.  It is constantly being gutted and the financial crisis of 2008 hit us really hard, but we are still doing okay.
After this next financial crisis we will be in even worse shape.  But we will still be breathing.
More “waves” will come after this next financial crisis.  If we continue on the road that we are on, our economy will progressively get worse and worse.
Not everyone will agree with this analysis, and that is okay.  In the end, time will reveal the truth to all of us.
Right now, we all need to get ready for the next wave that is about to hit us.  A lot of people are going to lose their jobs over the next few years.  Hopefully you are prepared for that.
icubud: (my barcode)



the above is in page 38 of The Week magazine, 10/21/11 edition
Dictionary.com:
Recession: Economics. a period of an economic contraction, sometimes limited in scope or duration.
Depression:
Economics. a period during which business, employment, and stock-market values decline severely or remain at a very low level of activity.

2 cents:
Now tell me with a straight face that we are out of the recession and depression.

icubud: (my barcode)



the above is in page 38 of The Week magazine, 10/21/11 edition
Dictionary.com:
Recession: Economics. a period of an economic contraction, sometimes limited in scope or duration.
Depression:
Economics. a period during which business, employment, and stock-market values decline severely or remain at a very low level of activity.

2 cents:
Now tell me with a straight face that we are out of the recession and depression.

icubud: (Default)

By Jon Hilsenrath and Luca Di Leo

 

28 April 2011          

 

The Wall Street Journal
Excerpts from  article:

The Federal Reserve used its first-ever news conference to signal it will phase out a controversial program of pumping money into the financial system -- and to reassure a skeptical public that the central bank is doing everything it can to control inflation and expand an uneven recovery that has yet to reach many Americans.

By ending the bond purchases, the Fed has effectively decided that it won't do more to boost growth, even though the economy appeared to stumble during the first quarter. Fed officials now will turn their attention to when the central bank might start raising interest rates. Mr. Bernanke made clear he isn't inclined to do that for a long time, unless the inflation outlook worsens.

Critics say the Fed is hastening the dollar's decline by flooding the financial system with so much of the currency through its bondbuying programs.

The Commerce Department is expected to report Thursday that the economy grew slowly in the first quarter, at a subpar annual rate of less than 2% -- a condition that could justify leaving rates very low.

Ending the bond-purchase program in June is now its next order of business. The Fed first announced its bond purchases in November 2008 as one of its many untested attempts to fight the financial crisis. It ramped up the program in March 2009, allowed it to expire, and then resumed it in November.

Fed officials for the most part believe the multiple rounds of purchases -- known as quantitative easing -- helped to ease financial conditions, lift the economy and fight off the threat of deflation, a decline in the overall level of prices. The latest round was accompanied by a soaring stock market and falling unemployment. But the Fed's skeptics say the bond-buying program failed because it helped to push down the dollar by pumping so much of the currency into the economy and pushed up commodities prices, breeding inflation risks.

2 cents:
Printing ridiculous amounts of paper money to give your government purchasing power it does not have while not having to take out more loans to payback with more money printed that will not have to be paid back. This is the process that has created the debt. Since O has been in office the debt has soared and he makes no apologies for it - which is in step with the liberal democratic party. The result nations look at our worthless currency then see the staggering amount of it that has been printed and make the completely reasonable judgment that it is worth less than there own currency and wa-la the US dollar is devalued and there begins the mighty steep and slippery slope.

icubud: (Default)

By Jon Hilsenrath and Luca Di Leo

 

28 April 2011          

 

The Wall Street Journal
Excerpts from  article:

The Federal Reserve used its first-ever news conference to signal it will phase out a controversial program of pumping money into the financial system -- and to reassure a skeptical public that the central bank is doing everything it can to control inflation and expand an uneven recovery that has yet to reach many Americans.

By ending the bond purchases, the Fed has effectively decided that it won't do more to boost growth, even though the economy appeared to stumble during the first quarter. Fed officials now will turn their attention to when the central bank might start raising interest rates. Mr. Bernanke made clear he isn't inclined to do that for a long time, unless the inflation outlook worsens.

Critics say the Fed is hastening the dollar's decline by flooding the financial system with so much of the currency through its bondbuying programs.

The Commerce Department is expected to report Thursday that the economy grew slowly in the first quarter, at a subpar annual rate of less than 2% -- a condition that could justify leaving rates very low.

Ending the bond-purchase program in June is now its next order of business. The Fed first announced its bond purchases in November 2008 as one of its many untested attempts to fight the financial crisis. It ramped up the program in March 2009, allowed it to expire, and then resumed it in November.

Fed officials for the most part believe the multiple rounds of purchases -- known as quantitative easing -- helped to ease financial conditions, lift the economy and fight off the threat of deflation, a decline in the overall level of prices. The latest round was accompanied by a soaring stock market and falling unemployment. But the Fed's skeptics say the bond-buying program failed because it helped to push down the dollar by pumping so much of the currency into the economy and pushed up commodities prices, breeding inflation risks.

2 cents:
Printing ridiculous amounts of paper money to give your government purchasing power it does not have while not having to take out more loans to payback with more money printed that will not have to be paid back. This is the process that has created the debt. Since O has been in office the debt has soared and he makes no apologies for it - which is in step with the liberal democratic party. The result nations look at our worthless currency then see the staggering amount of it that has been printed and make the completely reasonable judgment that it is worth less than there own currency and wa-la the US dollar is devalued and there begins the mighty steep and slippery slope.

icubud: (piles of documents)

Consumer confidence improved in December to its best level in six months and its second highest level since the start of 2008.  The gain was due to improved employment expectations that made consumers more willing to spend and adopt more favorable prospects for the overall economy. Lessening job uncertainty pushed buying plans for household durables up to their highest level in three years. Nonetheless, consumers’ views of their financial situations have remained quite negative due to the widespread expectation of stagnant incomes.

Personal Finances Remain Dismal: The current state of consumers’ financial situations remains grim. Just 23% reported recent gains in their finances, unchanged from last December, as twice as many consumers reported income declines as income advances. The majority of consumers anticipated no income increases during the year ahead, as they have for a record 24 consecutive months.

https://customers.reuters.com/community/university/

icubud: (piles of documents)

Consumer confidence improved in December to its best level in six months and its second highest level since the start of 2008.  The gain was due to improved employment expectations that made consumers more willing to spend and adopt more favorable prospects for the overall economy. Lessening job uncertainty pushed buying plans for household durables up to their highest level in three years. Nonetheless, consumers’ views of their financial situations have remained quite negative due to the widespread expectation of stagnant incomes.

Personal Finances Remain Dismal: The current state of consumers’ financial situations remains grim. Just 23% reported recent gains in their finances, unchanged from last December, as twice as many consumers reported income declines as income advances. The majority of consumers anticipated no income increases during the year ahead, as they have for a record 24 consecutive months.

https://customers.reuters.com/community/university/

but wait...

Nov. 5th, 2010 07:43 pm
icubud: (Default)

Brazil, Indonesia, China and Japan have voice d concern"As has the financial press in Germany. "The most recent step taken by the Federal Reserve in the continuation of a series of undesirable developments in the US," writes the business daily Handelsblatt on Friday. "Instead of finally facing up to the excessive debt problem, accepting the uncomfortable truths and introducing painful reforms in the country, debt-financed stimulus programs remain the only strategy that Bernanke & Co. seem able to come up with."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,727457,00.html

2 cents: The article emphasizes the "spill over" the Feds's actions will have on the rest of the world and here. Spill over - me think that is awful similar to tipping point.

but wait...

Nov. 5th, 2010 07:43 pm
icubud: (Default)

Brazil, Indonesia, China and Japan have voice d concern"As has the financial press in Germany. "The most recent step taken by the Federal Reserve in the continuation of a series of undesirable developments in the US," writes the business daily Handelsblatt on Friday. "Instead of finally facing up to the excessive debt problem, accepting the uncomfortable truths and introducing painful reforms in the country, debt-financed stimulus programs remain the only strategy that Bernanke & Co. seem able to come up with."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,727457,00.html

2 cents: The article emphasizes the "spill over" the Feds's actions will have on the rest of the world and here. Spill over - me think that is awful similar to tipping point.

icubud: (Default)
I have had this graph on my computer desk since July as a reminder to share as a post. Thing is I have never taken the time to write what the dang thing tells me. I am trying to straighten up the I.S. so I am going to post with just a couple sentences.
Note we are at 2005 levels.
Celente, peoplenomics and others are forecasting by April next year we will be at the 1991 level.


icubud: (Default)
I have had this graph on my computer desk since July as a reminder to share as a post. Thing is I have never taken the time to write what the dang thing tells me. I am trying to straighten up the I.S. so I am going to post with just a couple sentences.
Note we are at 2005 levels.
Celente, peoplenomics and others are forecasting by April next year we will be at the 1991 level.


icubud: (Default)
I have not been doing any seriously delving into the news this week and about zilch in peoplenomics.
But I have noticed that storylines in the Washington Post, NYT and WSJ as well as Fox News, Drudge Report and CNN have been reporting about the reality (finally getting the news out) that ladies and gentlemen there is no recession recovery and things are darn near as bad as they were a year and even in some manners - two years ago. I also noticed where O agrees with my assessment and strategy in creating a valuable needed transportation infrastructure project/s that would lead to a boom in business (in quite a few industries) and create thousands of real jobs. A real rail system across the nation is something overdue. I am talking high-speed coast to in around 12 hours. We shall see...
All stated to share I have noticed slowly increasing pressure being deliberately bit for this election on the touchstone - IMPORTANT - issues with the upcoming election getting closer. The leviathan no one (that I have noticed) is willing to seriously attack and remedy is the REAL issue which is the national debt. This has a HUGE impact on the confidence inside and of America - and this confidence is the fuel that drives our economy nationally and globally. What is going on is possible consumers and investors staring at the dilapidated machine with missing parts and huge holes, cracks, and breaks and they are betting against the economy in our nation by not investing or buying but saving their cash (which is a good thing) but also diverting investing dollars into other things like foreign currencies (betting the dollar will completely crash) and so on.
So .... yep I have noticed....
icubud: (Default)
I have not been doing any seriously delving into the news this week and about zilch in peoplenomics.
But I have noticed that storylines in the Washington Post, NYT and WSJ as well as Fox News, Drudge Report and CNN have been reporting about the reality (finally getting the news out) that ladies and gentlemen there is no recession recovery and things are darn near as bad as they were a year and even in some manners - two years ago. I also noticed where O agrees with my assessment and strategy in creating a valuable needed transportation infrastructure project/s that would lead to a boom in business (in quite a few industries) and create thousands of real jobs. A real rail system across the nation is something overdue. I am talking high-speed coast to in around 12 hours. We shall see...
All stated to share I have noticed slowly increasing pressure being deliberately bit for this election on the touchstone - IMPORTANT - issues with the upcoming election getting closer. The leviathan no one (that I have noticed) is willing to seriously attack and remedy is the REAL issue which is the national debt. This has a HUGE impact on the confidence inside and of America - and this confidence is the fuel that drives our economy nationally and globally. What is going on is possible consumers and investors staring at the dilapidated machine with missing parts and huge holes, cracks, and breaks and they are betting against the economy in our nation by not investing or buying but saving their cash (which is a good thing) but also diverting investing dollars into other things like foreign currencies (betting the dollar will completely crash) and so on.
So .... yep I have noticed....

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